Mini-Series - High Performance Decision-Making (Part 1)

👋 Hi, legend!

Happy Tuesday! We’re shaking it up a bit over the next few weeks. In lieu of our regular Tuesday Edition–a curated newsletter containing quick tips, tricks, and resources–you’re looking at the first instalment of a mini-series on high performance decision-making for dynamic and complex situations.

Whether you support the change and would like to see the new format stay, or you’ve been getting lots out of your regular Tuesday Editions and want them back, I’d love to hear from you. I’ll run a quick one-question poll at the end to gauge your thoughts. For bonus points, if there’s a topic that you’d like to see broken down into a mini-series, let me know!

Don’t forget: The referral competition closes this Friday the 17th of January 2025, at 11:59PM AEDST. Don’t miss your chance to win!

In my day-to-day role as a first responder, I'm fortunate to have front row seats to some elite decision-makers facing incredibly difficult situations. In my experience, the leaders and operators who excel in this environment are quicker to acquire and synthesise information, can anticipate consequences from further out, and have a firm understanding of mission priorities. In a world marked by rapid change, disruptive innovation, and evolving challenges, uncertainty has become the new normal–and there's something that we can learn from these high achievers.

Whether it’s deciding to pivot your business strategy, invest in a new opportunity, or make a personal career leap, high performers often find themselves navigating murky waters. The capacity to make sound decisions in the face of uncertainty should be a core focus for anyone who aspires to live, lead, or work in a high performance space. Fortunately, there are mental models that can act as a compass, guiding us through ambiguity. Over the coming weeks, we will explore some powerful tools that can empower us to embrace uncertainty, assess options more accurately, and take decisive action. Enjoy! 🏖️

Probabilistic Thinking: Quantifying The Uncertain

Most decisions involve some degree of uncertainty. Probabilistic thinking forces us to confront this uncertainty by assigning probabilities to potential outcomes, allowing us to quantify risks and rewards. Instead of seeking definitive answers, we evaluate the likelihood of various scenarios and weigh them accordingly. By assigning numerical values, we can achieve greater objectivity and limit the impacts of bias.

How It Works

Imagine you’re deciding whether to launch a new product in a competitive market; let's call it Product A. Instead of framing the decision as a binary success-or-failure proposition, you break it down into probabilities:

• There’s a 60% chance that Product A will meet its sales target.

• There’s a 30% chance it will underperform.

• There’s a 10% chance of a breakout success.

By quantifying these possibilities, you can better assess how the potential rewards stack up against the risks. This approach shifts your focus from perfection to optimisation, enabling you to make informed choices when outcomes aren’t guaranteed.

Confidence: The Next Logical Step

You can take this model further by evaluating the accuracy of your projections. Ask yourself:

📇 Is my data credible?

⏰ Is my data recent?

🧭 Is my data relevant?

👓 Have I screened for and/or removed the impact of bias?

There are hundreds of tests (questions) that you could apply to your data and assessment method to understand its limitations. Once this is done, you can assign a percentage to capture this. Let’s call this confidence. 

Confidence comes in handy when weighing multiple paths with ranging outcomes. Using the first example of the product launch, imagine you now have to choose whether to launch Product A, Product B, or neither. After assigning the three outcome percentages (on target, underperform, breakout), you can now assess this decision against all the information that you have used.

In this case, you can't draw many comparisons between Product A and other launches in the market, and a lot of the data that you do use is from five years ago. The evidence to support your assessment is relatively weak, so you might assign a confidence of 60%. 

On the flip side, Product B might be very similar to another recent launch (Product C). It also scored the same or better in consumer tests as Product C. Based on these comparisons, your confidence in the assessment of the outcome may be 90%. 

This process becomes particularly valuable when you come back to compare Product A and Product B. If both products have an identical success projection of 80%, but your confidence in the assessment of Product A is 60%, versus 90% for Product B, you're actually taking on more risk with Product A. 

Call To Action

1. Give it a shot! We make so many important decisions using incredibly rudimentary and/or automatic processes. Pick something out this week, and take the time to apply a numerical value to outcomes. Let me know how you go!

2. Share this email with a friend or colleague who might benefit from improved decision-making.

3. Give me some feedback in the poll below! ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ Help shape the future of The High Performance Brief.

Conclusion

High-performance decision-making is a skill that anyone can cultivate with the right tools and mindset. By embracing frameworks like probabilistic thinking, you shift your approach from guesswork to strategic clarity.

One of the most rewarding aspects of intentionally applying thinking and decision-making techniques is how they naturally integrate into your processes—the more you practice them consciously, the more they emerge automatically under pressure. Eventually, things start to slow down a little and your confidence gets a boost, offering the mental clarity and breathing room that is needed to make thoughtful decisions under heavy stress.

Stay tuned for Part 2! We will take a look at a couple of concepts that build on probabilistic thinking to nail your next dilemma. 🥊

Thanks for reading another edition of The High Performance Brief.

Speak soon,

Zac

Disclaimer: The High Performance Brief is for general education purposes only. The content is not a substitute for professional healthcare or psychological services. If you have any health/mental health concerns, please consult a qualified professional.